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Residents of the Big Apple will find out the identity of their next mayor this election day, in a contest that will determine who governs and defends the country's most populous metropolis at a moment when the former president has vowed to deploy armed forces to the city.

In this context, New York has witnessed a race for mayor that has matched two very different Democratic figures against one another. The contest has become an increasingly bitter face-off, laced with accusations of racism and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the ideological divide between the two leading candidates that could have significant consequences for how the party fares in next year's midterm elections.

The Progressive Challenger

On the left side is the democratic socialist, the 34-year-old progressive candidate whose meteoric rise and grassroots campaign has brought global notice. On the establishment side is Andrew Cuomo, the former New York governor now campaigning independently – and enjoying the support of wealthy contributors and corporations.

With days to go, it is Mamdani, the one-time underdog who beat Cuomo in the Democratic primary who is firmly installed as the frontrunner. Mamdani, who has run on a platform of economic justice and promised to freeze rent for about two million city residents, has outpaced his rival by double-digits in every poll conducted in the fall, and it is very much the younger man's race to throw away.

A Bitter Contest

However, Cuomo, who resigned as governor in 2021 amid allegations of sexual harassment, has made it clear he will fight to the finish, and not necessarily in an fair fashion. He has criticized his opponent's goals as unachievable, and in the final stretch laughed as a broadcaster made Islamophobic remarks about the candidate, who is a Muslim. Recently, the independent was widely condemned as racist after posting an AI-generated ad that featured a slew of racist stereotypes and showed his opponent releasing a group of criminals.

This represents a particularly ugly end to an race that could be critical to the direction that the Democratic party, floundering in its reaction to Trump's authoritarian grabs, takes in the near future.

Broader Consequences

If Mamdani secures a clear victory, the establishment party leaders who have refused to endorse his bid will be forced to reckon with a platform that has resonated with voters' frustration at inequality, soaring price rises and the establishment. It would be difficult for Chuck Schumer and the House leader not to adopt at least a portion of Mamdani's ambitious ideas about affordability, given the fresh face has generated an excitement within the party arguably not witnessed since the Vermont senator ran for president eight years ago.

However, should the former governor, who had been expected to win easily in the Democratic primary, complete a surprising comeback victory, it could reinforce national Democrats' current model of cautious, lackluster opposition – a tactic that has angered grassroots members. A New York rejection of the progressive's optimistic platform could convince Schumer and Jeffries that the best plan is to stick to the political center – even as surveys show the present version of the Democratic party is widely disliked across the country.

Voter Enthusiasm

Voters in the city seem to prefer the progressive agenda. Polls show that his backers are far more enthusiastic about their candidate than Cuomo backers, something that has been apparent throughout the campaign. Mamdani's snappy videos on social media, his optimistic vision for New York and his willingness to actually venture out and meet people in the city has attracted an force of more than 50,000 supporters, many of them young or first-time voters.

Negative Tactics

However, the former governor, 67, isn't giving up. And with the risks stacked against him, the ex-leader has resorted to negative campaigning in the final days.

After spending months launching various attacks at Mamdani to see what might resonate, Cuomo has narrowed his focus on attacking Mamdani directly. He has labelled Mamdani, who was of Ugandan origin to South Asian heritage, an "radical", and appeared on conservative media for an discussion with a rightwing host, where Cuomo claimed New York “will not survive” Mamdani as mayor. It reached a nadir recently, when the former governor chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said the candidate would “cheer” another 9/11-style incident.

Political Landscape

This strategy echoes much of what the former president, who has deployed the national guard to the capital and warned to do the same to New York, has said about Mamdani, and perhaps that is expected. A set of wealthy residents, including some who contributed to Trump in the 2024 election, have pumped millions into trying to get Cuomo into office, as other influential figures have urged Curtis Sliwa to withdraw from the race.

Candidate Backgrounds

For the Cuomo camp, and his billionaire supporters, are concerned, it should never have come to this point. When the assemblyman, one of one hundred fifty New York state assembly members, launched his campaign for mayor in October 2024, not many had known him, and in truth, barely anyone even paid attention.

Cuomo, by comparison, eased his way into the race in this year and became the instant favorite. He was the political heavyweight who apparently held all the advantages. The classic political insider, he had married a Kennedy and served in Bill Clinton’s administration. He assumed office as the state's leader in 2011, seventeen years after his parent, Mario Cuomo, stepped down from the same position.

The progressive, who was voted in to the New York state assembly in 2020, does not have the comparable background. But his dedication to providing no-cost transit and free childcare – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – present a more positive vision of the future than his opponent's dire warnings about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his promise to hire more police officers.

Recent Challenges

Nevertheless, Mamdani has encountered some challenges in the final phase, after video emerged suggesting him suggesting the New York police department and the Israel Defense Forces were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the NYPD is on your throat, it’s been laced by the Israeli military,” the candidate said in the recording, recorded at a DSA convention in recent years. Mamdani, a vocal opponent of the Israeli government who has said the country is committing genocide in the Palestinian territory, suggested he was criticizing joint training exercises between the NYPD and IDF.

Powerful Moment

As the race closes, Mamdani seems to have gained empathy and backing, however, for his reaction to Cuomo’s increasing rhetoric.

The progressive addressed the independent's terrorism comments in an emotional video. In it, the candidate remembered how, when he first campaigned for the legislature, a family member advised to him that he did not have to tell people about his Muslim faith. It was a realization, Mamdani said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been taught “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the margins of our community. That it is in those hidden spaces alone where followers of Islam could express their true selves, and that if we were to emerge from those shadows, then it is in those shadows that we must leave our beliefs.”

Addressing the actions of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has alleged Mamd