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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Coach of the Year trophy adheres to a simple formula. It frequently serves as a type of mea culpa. Our apologies we got wrong your team in our preseason forecasts.

Theoretically, it's a clear-cut path: the skipper who orchestrated the most dramatic resurgence wins the prize. In reality, it creates an annual debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely rewarding excellent coaching or merely the most shocking surprise.

Yet the latest race is distinctly unique. The list of candidates is exceptionally talented. It has been the year of comebacks. The NFL has been messy, with reigning conference champions declining and recent underperformers rising collectively. In an ordinary season, Sean Payton guiding the Denver Broncos to the summit of the conference would make him the clear favorite. But in such a turbulent and thrilling season, he's up against five other exceptional coaches.

Below is how the projected vote ought to look.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year voters love quarterbacks. They always have. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you transform a quarterback, you're well on your way home.

The Bears' head coach not only corrected his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. Given a proper system, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to showcase his special talent. From midseason onward, the Chicago offense rank number four in offensive EPA per play. This isn't a brief surge – it's consistent excellence. With Johnson, Williams has become more confident, far less reckless, and has willingly surrendered to the gameplan instead of going rogue. It is an offense designed entirely in the coach's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a consistent helping of play-action and a creative passing attack that springs wide receiver receivers everywhere. The QB has taken advantage. And when clear throws weren't available, he's been able to conjure magic from nothing.

The coach arrived to the Bears with a clear offensive philosophy. Virtually every gamble – rebuilding the offensive line, highlighting the tight ends, turning Williams into a timing-based thrower – has paid off. That's uncommon for a first-year skipper. And it's even more uncommon still for a leader who walked into the building with the immense pressure Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the hottest candidate on the head coaching carousel. But when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Somehow, Johnson has met expectations – and even surpassed them. He's proven not just to be a offensive dork but the kind of culture builder that can breathe new life into an organization.

During a typical year, Johnson would be the runaway choice. But this is not a typical season!

Where Johnson's case runs a bit unstuck is on defense. The Bears presently rank 25th in defensive efficiency. They are relying on takeaways, and takeaways are notoriously unreliable. Coaches can stress creating turnovers, but no one can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is sustainable. He's ranked lower because luck is doing too much of the defensive work. With a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two wins worse off. It's been an remarkable turnaround, and the core is in place for sustained success. However Johnson falls just short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

Coen is in a comparable position to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie leader who has masterminded a rapid resurgence. Over the crucial final weeks of the season, he has his franchise quarterback playing the most complete overall football of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the remaking of a defensive unit that now ranks fifth in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more notably, Coen has excelled at the leadership stuff, which was not a certainty after his early public introduction and some of his offseason moves.

The coach walked into Jacksonville with an uncommonly inexperienced staff. In contrast to other coaches, who packed their staff with the ideal coaching cocktail of new ideas and experience, Coen hired newbies. From the leader himself to coordinators to position coaches, the Jags are filled with rookies. That type of approach is exciting on paper, but frequently fails in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a their job on the fly. But he has managed to bring the entire group and everything into sync.

Following an initial hot start, there was a chance that the season would veer off the rails. A midseason collapse caused the Jags wobbling again. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. He did not. Rather, he simplified the approach. Jacksonville stopped pursuing explosive answers and started hunting sustainable ones. Coen refocused the offense around key players and the ground attack, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more often.

The outcomes are obvious. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the AFC's number three playoff seed. Coen receives the tiniest deduction in the standings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has proven he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, Seattle Seahawks, Their Record

Each Strong of the Year argument has a pivotal decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback decision.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a new signal-caller and partnering him with an new offensive coordinator might have derailed the campaign in October. Rather, it shaped it. By the middle point of the year, the new QB was an MVP front-runner. He has fallen away since that time, slipping to a lower rank in EPA per dropback over the second half of the schedule, putting him only one spot ahead of other QBs.

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