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Back in 2018, a mere a short phrase to electrify a Labour conference demonstrating Labour was falling out of love with its then leader. Although not exactly stirring rhetoric, the words met with rapturous applause as most of the hall rose in an impromptu ovation.

As the commotion died down, the then-Brexit spokesman, stood at the podium, visibly startled. He was unaccustomed to his speeches producing such a reaction. All he had said was: "Nobody is ruling out staying in the EU". Context, however, is key.

During that darkly divisive time of 2018, departing from the prepared script in this way was inevitably viewed as laying down the gauntlet to Jeremy Corbyn, who was trying to prioritise Brexit voters in working-class seats above the Europhile sentiments of his party. In just one speech, this grey-suited shadow Brexit secretary underwent a transformation – if only for a while – into a risk-taker who championed most Labour MPs, members and voters against a leader he later succeeded.

The Shift of Stance & Closed Debates

In the years since, much has happened, not least to Starmer himself. One of his first acts after taking over in 2020 was to declare the EU question was resolved by the 2019 general election. And, at the last one, he consistently stressed unbreakable pledge promises that ruled out re-entry into the European Union or its core structures.

Like his predecessor, the PM's approach has focused on winning Brexit-y voters in target constituencies, despite survey data indicates a significant number have passed away or shifted opinion.

Pressure Building on the EU

Yet, the tables have turned and the prime minister’s turn to be an embattled Labour leader. And, if EU relations is no longer the boiling pot in UK politics, the cap which was firmly shut since Brexit is starting to loosen again.

Both Starmer and Rachel Reeves have intensified the rhetoric about the devastation caused by Brexit has inflicted on the UK’s economy. It’s a useful stick to criticize Nigel Farage, who seldom discusses his flagship policy was once his singular purpose and is still his only real achievement.

Nevertheless, the scale of the damage, reportedly has left Britain with an economy that is significantly diminished compared to EU membership, towers over the minor adjustments thus far implemented by ministers. The PM's much-touted re-set deal agreed with Brussels in 2024 offers economic benefits quantified in low decimal points.

Cabinet Divergence and Bolder Ideas

Rachel Reeves is one of those trying to overcome entrenched Home Office resistance to an expansive version of a growth-enabling youth mobility scheme allowing young people can travel between Britain and Europe for work or study.

David Lammy muses openly regarding the “self-evident” benefits of joining an EU customs pact, as several Labour backbenchers, including the chair of the powerful finance committee, last week supported an opposition proposal on customs union membership.

While Nick Thomas-Symonds, the minister in charge of EU policy, who is now attending all cabinet sessions, maintains the firm boundaries are still in place, there exist avenues to work around them. A proposal would be to announce the start of negotiations now on a much bolder deal, for inclusion in the next manifesto, with implementation only if securing a fresh mandate.

Starmer's Deep-Seated Doubts

Yet, Starmer has most recently pouring cold water again cautioning that a return to an EU customs arrangement would “unravel” the commercial agreements with America, which he regards as key accomplishments of his government.

It is understood that Starmer's doubts go still deeper, stemming from three further factors.

1. Firstly, he thinks a customs pact is now much harder because his ministers busily de-aligning from European rules in numerous policy areas, like environmental standards.
2. Second, the prohibitive cost set for the UK to join a European defense initiative and the ensuing failure of negotiations has convinced British officials that former EU partners have little interest in cutting special deals to the UK than in proving that leaving the EU was a mistake.
3. Lastly, the new US national security strategy, which has been welcomed by the Kremlin, is seen by some influential figures in Downing Street as grounds for the UK to maintain distance from the EU.

A Bizarre Strategy and Geopolitical Considerations

This bizarre and terrifying document asserts Europe is threatened by cultural extinction due to immigration. It includes only one reference of the UK, placed beside a suggestion that the US government may interfere in British politics to encourage the rise of “patriotic” parties.

However, instead of concluding that this makes the US an undependable ally, the government reportedly fear that aligning closer with Europe could upset the global balance by endangering precarious American backing for Kyiv, NATO, and other alliances.

Leadership Speculation & The Echo of 2018

This situation brings us back to 2018. The PM has consistently stated his speech was not an attempt for the leadership but simply an attempt to keep open the “option” of staying in the EU in a future vote. In fact, back then, Starmer still favoured a tailored trade agreement similar to the one he currently seems to reject.

Observers within Downing Street have noticed that Wes Streeting, who just about everyone assumes would stand in any leadership election, is among a group of cabinet ministers signaling they desire greater ambition on Europe.

Staff for Angela Rayner, another likely contender in a future race to replace Starmer, insist she won’t discuss her stance regarding a customs pact as it would merely “fuel unnecessary gossip”.

The Obvious Danger and A Wise Reminder

The danger is obvious. If Starmer rules out significant moves towards a close relationship, he cedes ground to occupy the space where most of the party's supporters reside.

It would be wise of him to recall the impact that a short phrase had on his career seven years ago. Potential pathways for a big offer on Europe which the PM ought to consider; he should explore them personally, before someone else adopt them as their own.